slw

Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) stock is declining today, as silver futures are trading lower by more than 3%. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SLW.

After hitting a one-year low of $8.83 last March, the stock hit a one-year high of $19.16 in January. This morning, SLW opened at $17.93. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.12 and a high of $17.93. As of 12:45, SLW is trading at $17.48, down 71 cents (-3.9%). The chart for SLW looks bullish and steady.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in three and a half months as long as SLW is below $22.50 at June expiration. Silver Wheaton would have to rise by more than 29% before we would start to lose money.

SLW hasn't been above $20 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $18.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of silver and other precious metals continues to rise at a meteoric rate, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance SLW might find just above $19, where the stock topped out back in January.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SLW.

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The commodity bull market has a long way to run," says Martin Weiss, editor of Money & Markets. "And while individual stocks are inherently more risky than funds, they also have more potential upside. And one area with a lot of upside potential is silver. As such, my top speculative pick for 2008 is Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

"Silver should ride a tidal wave of fundamentals higher in 2008. Above-ground stockpiles are getting very low, new mine production is lagging, industrial demand is surging and jewelry demand is growing in both China and India.

"And then there's the demand from silver exchange-traded funds, such as iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), which held over 161 million ounces of silver as of December 7, and keeps growing. India doesn't have a silver ETF yet but should have one in 2008 -- that will bring more demand to bear on the market.

"Silver Wheaton gets 100% of its revenue from silver, and has outperformed both gold and silver this year. It purchases silver from operating mines at a set rate, less than $4 per ounce, insulating it from rising costs. Its production should come in at 13 million ounces in 2007 and rise to 25 million ounces by 2010. Finally, Silver Wheaton has 362.2 million ounces in proven and probable silver reserves.

"The stock isn't cheap, but it is outperforming both gold and silver. And I expect precious metals to head much higher in 2008. Overall, I consider this a red-hot silver play."

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"Gold is a beneficiary of lower interest rates," says Daniel Frishberg, host of BizRadio and editor of The MoneyMan Gold & Oil Report.

He explains, "Gold has closed at his highest level in three decades. The precious metals market senses inflation is higher and economic growth slower than the official government numbers.

"With the price of oil at a record high and food inflation in a double digit zooming up, government statisticians will have us believe third quarter inflation was only 0.8%, the lowest level in 40 years.

"The gold market is not buying the government numbers. Regardless of what Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke says about containing inflationary pressures or what Treasury Secretary Paulson says about supporting a strong dollar policy, the U.S. dollar is being sacrificed to save the banking industry and prevent an economic slowdown and/or housing market collapse or even a recession.

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"Gold's recent move to a new highs clearly reinforces that the metal's six year bull market is alive and well," say leading resources experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

In The Aden Forecast, the sisters -- who have accurately forecast the bull market since its start in 2001 -- explain why they believe this upmove is part of a mega-trend that will last for many years to come.

"As the dollar falls further, gold will continue to head higher. And the unprecedented trade deficit nearly guarantees that the dollar will continue to slide. Lower U.S. interest rates reinforce this as well, and again that'll be good for gold.

"Meanwhile, U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the record high oil price means the trade deficit is going to stay huge. It'll also contribute to inflation by keeping upward pressure on consumer prices.

"So in a way, it's a vicious circle that goes something like this: high oil = large trade deficits = a weak dollar and high inflation. Spending and money creation = inflation, which all = higher gold.

Stocks moved mildly lower today taking a break from the bullish buying over the last two days. This is not really a bad sign, after all the S&P 500 gained 3.5% Tuesday and Wednesday so losing 0.67% today still leaves it up 2.8% since the Fed cut. September equity options expire tomorrow so we may see some some extra volatility gong into the end of the week.

The NYSE had volume of 3.0 billion shares with 978 shares advancing while 2,331 declined for a loss of 34.43 points to close at 9,936.47. On the NASDAQ, 1.6 billion shares traded, 1,131 advanced and 1,864 declined for a loss of 12.19 to 2,654.29.

Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) dropped $1.90 (-18%) to $8.67 on earnings. Silver Wheaton Corp (NYSE: SLW) rose $0.99 (8%) to $14.02. D R Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) fell $1.11 (-7%) to $14.08. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) fell $1.95 (-7%) to $27.37. CKE Restaurants Inc (NYSE: CKR) fell $0.99 (-6%) to $15.55 on $.15 earnings per share.

In options there were 5.8 million puts and 7.7 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.75. The most active options lists were almost completely filled with ETF and index options. S&P Depositary Receipts Trust ETF (NYSE: SPY) saw very heavy volume on the September 150 calls (SYHIT) with over 643,800 options trading. The SPY September 149 calls (SFBIS) also had a lot of activity moving 300,400 contracts. Financial Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF) were again active; the September 33 calls (XLFIG) with over 171,900 options trading. PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) saw heavy volume on the March 45 puts (QQQOS) with over 199,800 options trading and the March 48 puts (QQQOV) moved 180,500 options trading.
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Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

"This is a great time to be buying in the gold and silver area," says resources expert Adrian Day. In his Global Analyst newsletter, the money manager and advisor explains, "We are focusing on quality companies in the junior resource sector, following what is traditionally the weak summer period for gold prices."

One favorite of the advisor is Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), which he notes has a strong balance sheet and long-term reserves. He points out that the stock has been held down as would-be acquirer Harmony sells shares.

In addition, he states, "Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) is one of the strong balance sheets, highest growth outlook, more favorable country risk profiles among the senior miners."

Among silver companies, he says, "Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI) has a strong balance sheet (even allowing for a problem in some commercial paper it holds) of C$242 million, including bullion.

The markets made mild gains closing out the holiday week on lighter volume. The Dow gained 203 points this week to close at 13611.68 a 1.5% gain for the week.

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) moved higher $3.89 (6%) to $68.10 with active options trading on rumors it may shed its credit card business. Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) rose $0.68 (5%) to $13.17 on higher silver prices. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE: CME) rose $19.11 (3%) to $574.80 after sweetening the CBOT takeover offer.

The NYSE had volume of 2.3 billion shares with 1,971 shares advancing while 1,285 declined for a gain of 49.15 points to close at 1,0075.39. On the NASDAQ, 1.6 billion shares traded, 1,740 advanced and 1,259 declined for a gain of 9.86 to 2,666.51.

"Get ready for central banks to 'talk down' gold," cautions Eric Roseman in his Commodity Trend Alert who nevertheless remains bullish and offers a trio of favorites.

"Gold prices, in a secular long-term bull market since 2001, continue to impress even the greatest of skeptics," he says. Indeed, he adds, "You've got to be impressed with this price action lately, even as major economy central banks continue to sell their hoard."

The advisor points out that as major central bands sell gold, the emerging market central banks are buying. He explains, "That's the case with Russia, China, and several other countries over the last three years. If I was running a central bank, you can bet your last fiat dollar I'd be selling paper money for gold!"

The advisor forecasts that central banks will start "talking down" bullion very soon. He observes that that is what happened last June as gold prices blasted past $700 an ounce.

He says, "Pretty soon, we'll hear statements like 'inflation is too high, rates have to rise,' or 'wage inflation threatens growth.' Whatever it is, central banks will try to smash the gold price lower once again."

As a result, he expects the metals prices to be "bumpy" on their way to higher levels. Indeed, his forecast calls for a move above $850 by the end of 2008, "if not sooner."

As for specific stocks, he says, "Sometimes, you have to make big bets on great companies that are selling at major discounts to peers in the same industry." And within the metals sector, he feels that describes Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

He explains, "Now is the time to build on price weakness when the market is giving you these stocks, literally, for almost nothing. Based on assets, cash-flow and growing reserves, these three mining stocks are trading at a major discount to other premium-priced companies in the same industry."

Overall, he concludes, "We've got some monumental gains coming our way for the precious metals. Make sure you own some of the best and largest names in the business at these distressed prices ahead of next historical rally."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

At least one "American Idol" fan is mad as hell at Howard Stern for promoting Vote for the Worst's campaign for the hapless Sanjaya Malakar and can't take it anymore.

A person or persons has created a rather cheap-looking Web site STICKITTOSTERN to take on the King of All Media that calls on Idol viewers to lobby members of Congress to vote against the pending Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) acquisition of XM Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR).

Idol fans have accused Stern of ruining America's most popular television show by asking people not to vote for their favorite singer in the talent competition. Others, me included, argue that Stern is showing that "American Idol" is a singing competition in name only.

Stickittostern and no doubt the top managers at Fox parent News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) see no humor in Stern's shenanigans.

"Stopping this merger would cost Stern millions since a sizeable amount of his pay package is tied up in company stock," the Web site says, adding that it will suspend its campaign only if Stern agrees to the following five demands which are listed verbatim below:

• Stop "Vote for the Worst" campaign
• Send a written and video apology for "Vote for the Worst" campaign to "American Idol."
• Give any "American Idol" contestant voted off the show because of "Vote for the Worst" $20,000 as a goodwill gester (sp?).
• Apologize to wack packer "Eric the Actor" for "Vote for the Worst" campaign
• Never watch of TiVo American Idol again

Much as I hate to burst this campaign's bubble, Stern didn't start the "Vote for the Worst" campaign. The Web site has been around since 2004.

Three of the leading advisory services that focus on the natural resource sector have reaffirmed their bullish posture on silver and issued buy recommendations on their favorite silver stocks.

Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, editors of The Aden Forecast, outline their expected path for the metals: "Technically, silver looks good. It's next resistance is at $14.06 basis March. If it rises and stays above that level, silver could then quickly move up to $14.88, its May high."

They note that silver will remain very strong within its longer term uptrend as long as it remains above the $12.75 level. Meanwhile, they offer a pair of favorite silver stocks - Silver Standard Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: SSRI) and Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS).